Boys, boys, boys.
Here are some facts.
The Fife Curling Trust issued a questionairre about ice usage to the Fife Clubs.
They got figures for current ice usage from all the clubs and where they curled e.g 20 sheets at Kinross, 10 at Kirkcaldy, 5 at Perth etc.
We then asked them how they would place their ice if a rink was built at both Cupar or Glenrothes.
We found Cupar more popular than Glenrothes - hence why we are there.
we looked at the issue strategically - we did not want to shut down a decent rink like Kinross by our actions as that is counterproductive for the sport. We felt that Kinross and ourselves could work well with both being in existance and would encourage participation in the sport - Johns theory on local rinks i guess.
In our NCA submission - we went for 6 sheets - for most of the reasons outlined above and in the knowledge that 4 sheets at Kinross was at capacity.
When Kinross got the NCA we thought long and hard about our intentions and the way forward - we decided on looking at the business plans etc that the pragmatic and sensible approach would be to go for 4 sheets - in essence a reversal of the roles.

In our projections from the questionaire Stevew isnt far from the mark at Kinross losing 25% to Cupar.- we reckoned 30%
HOWEVER
There is a substantial amount of west Fife ice at Kirkcaldy with some also at Murrayfield and Perth. We reckoned that migration to the local rink at Kinross from those rinks would make up a good proportion of shortfall for Kinross.
With Kinross going to 2 sessions on the 6 sheet, this is still the case.
The upside of this - everybody is actually curling at their local rink.
It is no secret that FCT and Kinross are comfortable with each others plans and the joint effect of both rinks will have a positive effect on the sport in the wider area.
The losers in ice terms  are definately Kirkcaldy with little bits from Murrayfield, Perth, Forfar, Dundee.

We all know the long term Kirkcaldy prospects, Perth is now busy with extra atholl ice, No Gogar keeps Murryfield busy, Forfar has absorbed Letham Grange ice and gone to 7 sheets, Dundee can only curl 2 nights a week max anyway.

Strategically for the sport - everybody (except Kdy) wins

Let me stress - in no way is Cupar in Competition with Kinross, just that patterns of ice will move to a more local level between all the rinks.

SteveW,

Been checking over your figures.

A flurry of posts between 3.05pm and 3.59pm. Quite a long afternoon tea break then!

Glad you rushed your lunchtime analysis of the figures.

25% wasn't my guess. I calculate more like 15%.

If the questonnaire response says that 25% of curlers would move from Kinross to Cupar, then so be it, but from my analysis, that would mean almost half of the clubs in West Fife moving from Kinross to Cupar and a cursory look at the geography and location of West Fife clubs makes this, in my opinion, somewhat unlikely.

Perhaps, some of the respondants were influenced by the possibilities of getting ice at times that were actually practical. The rush to get to Kinross from work for the 5:45 session and the discomfort of getting home well after midnight after a 9:45 session being unpopular for many people.

"Kinross has 17 clubs from East Fife and Cupar Provinces Curling there on a regular basis the combined ice allocated to these clubs in season 0809 is 413 sheets of mostly peak time"

which could be offset by  over 500 sheets at Kdy that is currently taken by west fife clubs + 100+sheets at perth & murrayfield

steveW - there is a difference between numbers of members and numbers of games - some clubs curl more than others!

season 0809 23 weeks multiply by 7 days in each week ( this season might be 29 weeks we started on the 22nd Sept through to the 12th April I dont have a callander to hand) Im sure someone will work it out

Thanks. Yes, that's 28 weeks, so 28*7=196. You say 34 days equivalent taken by East Fife and Cupar clubs, so that's 34/196 = 17%.

I met SJK this morning and we had a good chat. I'm not going to go into the percentages again, but can we settle for a likely loss of 20% to Kinross when Cupar opens? It won't be far off the mark. There could be a 15% increase from NCA business, mostly off-peak ice, so that will not affect the 20% loss, which means there will still be a 20% loss in peak-time demand.

Fife is a rural area with not many changes in demography, and with a population not nearly as well off as perhaps Aberdeen. Although Kinross is next to a motorway the travelling curlers form Perth or Edinburgh will not increase much, except for NCA business and the odd competition. So how can Kinross make up for the 20% loss?

It is said that the six sheeter is essential to allow people to curl during peak time and get to bed earlier. Kinross might be fully subscribed for these sessions now, but will they still be in the future? For the area of Cupar/Kinross, ice availability will rise from four sheets now to ten sheets later, for basically the same number of curlers. An increase of 150% in ice availability, with only an increase (in off-peak needs) of 15% for the NCA, after that loss of 20% (mostly peak ice).

Kinross curlers are loyal and will support their new facility, of that I am sure. But to increase their ice by 50% at a time when 20% of the current business will move to Cupar -- and then expect the Kinross curlers to pay for it -- makes no sense at all. Certainly, from my point of view, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking involved here. I am quite sure that, if the Kinross curlers are allowed to look carefully at this situation, they will adapt their curling habits to fit in with available ice, rather than adapt available ice to suit their supposed preferences.

and by the way - the man behind the Kinross thing has already stated that he is cutting the evening sessions to 2 rather than 3 - the net effect being the peak ice available is exactly the same - not an increase of 150% !!!

There is also the issue of actually growing the number of curlers and games - if you are fully booked - where do they curl or how does that happen?